President Gustavo Petro has rejected his predecessor’s disastrous response to a security crisis in Colombia, but can’t immediately implement his own.
Since the president took office earlier this month, hundred of people have been forcibly displaced as a consequence of violence between illegal armed groups and against civilians.
Two massacres were added to the 61 that were registered by conflict monitoring NGO Indepaz in the little more than seven months that former President Ivan Duque was in office.
The same NGO also registered the assassinations of 114 human rights defenders and community leaders so far this year.
Massacre victims so far this year
More than 70,000 people were forcibly displaced because of violence in the first half of 2022, according to the International Commission of the Red Cross.
According to the United Nations’ humanitarian agency, violence and armed conflict has affected the lives of more than 3 million Colombians so far this year compared to 150,000 in the same period in 2021.
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Total peace
While on campaign, Petro promised he would abandon the “Peace with Legality” security policy of his predecessor Ivan Duque an implement his ambitious “Total Peace” policy instead.
This policy proposal wants to tackle Colombia’s rapidly deteriorating security situation through far-reaching reforms in the security forces, a new drug policy and a peace policy that includes dismantling the illegal armed groups that are wreaking havoc in the countryside.
The problem is that Petro won’t be able to implement any of these policy without congressional approval, which last week needed three hours just to formally begin one of its sessions.
Additionally, whether all the government coalition parties will support all of Petro’s Total Peace plans is nothing but certain.
Meanwhile, the president is forced to come up with provisional responses to Colombia’s security crisis that gradually deteriorated over the past years and escalated in the first half of this year.
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Reorganizing the security forces
Petro reorganized the military leadership so he can count on the army and police generals to support ambitions plans for a structural reform of the military and the National Police.
The government can’t make any structural reforms without congressional approval, so the president has been seeking provisional strategy changes.
Over the past week, the president ordered the security forces prevent massacres that have skyrocketed since 2020 “as much as possible.”
Petro warned army and police on Twitter that “massacres and their impunity in their jurisdiction will affect commanders’ resumes” without providing specifics.
The president presumably wants the army and police units to prioritize the defense of civilians against illegal armed groups and organized crime instead of attacking these groups.
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Ending War on Drugs
Petro has also vowed to end repressive counternarcotics policies to combat drug trafficking after potential cocaine production in Colombia reached an all-time high in 2021.
The president’s drug policy advisers have been working on a new approach for months and Petro said in his inaugural speech he wanted to regulate drug trafficking instead of waging a war against them.
The government has yet to present a policy proposal to Congress, however.
Petro and Defense Minister Ivan Velasquez have told the new military leadership that they want counternarcotics agents to increase their presence at ports and land borders to stop cocaine from leaving the country.
Historically, these counternarcotics units mainly focused their efforts in regions where coca, the base ingredient of cocaine, is grown, often causing clashes will illegal armed groups and farmers alike.
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Peace talks
Petro’s Peace Commissioner Danilo Rueda met with guerrilla group ELN last week in an attempt to resume peace talks that were initiated by former President Juan Manuel Santos and suspended by Duque.
Rueda said last week that he was also hoping to begin preliminary talks with paramilitary group AGC and dissidents of the now-defunct FARC guerrilla groups soon.
None of these groups are expected to agree to demobilize and disarm anytime soon, especially if they keep trying to exterminate each other.
In order to prevent that Petro’s ambitious “Total Peace” plan ends up in disaster, Rueda will have to try to reduce or even prevent violence between the multiple armed groups that have created the latest security crisis.
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“Human security”
Security Council meeting in Choco (Image: President’s Office)
On a visit to the troubled Choco province, Petro announced changes to so-called “security councils” that were historically only attended by the security forces and local authorities.
The president said that these security meetings will also include other institutions like regional universities and health authorities.
This way, Petro said he wants to secure to make sure to come with solutions for specific social problems in problem regions instead of perpetually flying soldiers from crisis to crisis.
President Gustavo Petro
The involvement of the education sector in these security meetings, for example, would allow schools and universities to come up with plans for regions where getting an education is considerably more complicated than getting a gun, according to the president.
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In between policies
Petro may have abandoned much of Duque’s public security policy, but is far from implementing his own.
The process to replace the military leadership is inherently chaotic, which could effect the ability to the National Police and the military to respond to emergencies.
This could further increase violence between illegal armed groups and against civilians, especially because the transition of government coincides with what conflict analysts have called one of Colombia’s worst security crises in decades.