Following the arrest of “Otoniel,” the central command of paramilitary group AGC, a.k.a. “Clan del Golfo,” will have to choose a new leader.

How this process works is unknown as the paramilitaries haven’t replaced a supreme commander since the arrest of the group’s founder, “Don Mario,” in 2009.

Conflict analyst Camilo Gonzalez said that a conflict within the AGC is almost certain as multiple commanders would be ready to step up.

Conflict analyst Camilo Gonzalez

According to analyst Ariel Avila, the possible internal conflict would change little in areas under paramilitary control.

Conflict analyst Ariel Avila

Paramilitary retaliations

Conflict analyst Esteban Salazar warned for additional retaliatory violence targeting the security forces and civilians in areas where the AGC exercises territorial control or has major economic interests.

This would mainly affect the Choco, Antioquia and Cordoba provinces where the AGC is most powerful, said Salazar.

Authorities in the Uraba region, the paramilitaries’ stomping ground, canceled two public events on Sunday out of fear of paramilitary attacks.

The independent analysts dismissed claims by President Ivan Duque and the director of the National Police, General Jorge Luis Vargas, that the arrest would imply the end of the AGC.

Throughout modern history, Colombia’s authorities have arrested and killed the leaders all kinds of illegal armed groups without this posing an existential threat.

The AGC’s ties to corrupt elements within the security forces have long impeded the arrest of “Otoniel” and would make dismantling the entire organization almost impossible.