A third poll released in Colombia on Friday made a prediction of the outcome of election held in little more than a week impossible as all polls now indicate a different outcome.
According to the poll by Cifras y Conceptos, incumbent President Juan Manuel Santos is the clear favorite to win the elections on June 15 ahead of his rival, hard-line candidate Oscar Ivan Zuluaga.
However, two polls released only hours before reported conflicting outcomes; According to a Ipsos Napoleon Franco poll, Zuluaga is set to become Colombia’s next president while US pollster Gallup said that the race between the electoral rivals is tied.
According to Cifras y Conceptos, Zuluaga’s rise in the weeks leading up to the first round of the election held on May 25 has been curbed, while Santos has been favored by the exit of three defeated presidential hopefuls.
Santos benefits from defeat on the left: Poll
The hard-line opposition candidate won the first round with 29%, leaving the incumbent 3.5 percentage points behind.
However, according to the latest poll Santos now enjoys the support of 43.4% of the electorate against 38.5% of voters who favor Zuluaga. Another 11.7% responded to cast a blank vote and 6.3% did not respond or did not yet know what to vote next week.
The incumbent’s virtual victory was mostly due to support from supporters of the leftist Clara Lopez (Democratic Pole) and the centrist Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) who were left out the race on May 25, said Cifras y Conceptos.
Supporters of the Conservative Party are considerably more split: 55% of self-proclaimed conservatives said to favor Zuluaga against 38% who said to prefer Santos.
Voters who said not to be affiliated with any party or ideology — the majority of voters — showed even more split; 40% said to support Santos and 30% said to vote for Zuluaga.
Pick your favorite outcome
While Cifras y Conceptos said Santos is clearly leading the race, competing pollster Ipsos Napoleon Franco said the same about Zuluaga while US pollster Gallup claimed both candidates are drawing.
MORE: Zuluaga Takes Lead, Santos Closes Gap: Polls Divided Over Colombia Election Outcome
Gallup and Cifras y Conceptos do agree that Santos has been able to gain a few percentage points over his rival. Ipsos Napoleon, the pollster who was closest to predicting the correct outcome of the first round, is the only pollster to claim Zuluaga has gained momentum.
