Poll: Cepeda expands lead over immediate rival ahead of Colombia’s elections

by | Apr 27, 2026

Senator Ivan Cepeda, the frontrunner in Colombia’s presidential race, expanded his lead over the far-right runner-up, lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, according to pollster Invamer.

Cepeda received the support of 44.3% of the polled voters, a significant improvement compared to February, when 37.1% of the voters said they would support the leftist senator and long-time ally of President Gustavo Petro.

Support for De la Espriella went from 18.9% in February to 21.5% earlier this month.

The lawyer’s moderate rise was mainly due to the surge of the number three in the race and De la Espriella’s immediate rival ahead of the first round next month, far-right Senator Paloma Valencia.

The “Uribista” candidate won a conservative primary in March and saw her support grow from 10% to 19.8% since February.

Support for self-proclaimed “centrist” candidates dropped significantly over the past few months.

Former Bogota Mayor Claudia Lopez went from 11.7% to 3.6% and former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo descended from 6.6% to 2.5%.

With the current support, Cepeda would defeat all his rivals in a second round, according to Invamer.

This could change dramatically if Valencia and De la Espriella overcome the far-right division and jointly seek to prevent the election of a leftist successor to Colombia’s first progressive government in history, which will leave office in August.

So far, both candidates have refused to sacrifice their campaigns for a united right offensive.

Cepeda’s campaign has repeatedly said that it hoped to secure a victory in the first round of the elections in May.

Such a victory would require more than 50% of the votes.

“Let’s not get sidetracked—the goal is to win on May 31 so we can celebrate in full,” said Senator Maria Jose Pizarro, Cepeda’s campaign manager, in response to the latest Invamer poll.

PODCAST

Popular