The participation of organized crime groups in the “Total Peace” proposal of Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro would severely disrupt global drug trafficking.
Almost all illegal armed groups that are involved in Colombia’s cocaine trade have said they want to take part in Petro’s proposed peace process.
Among these 22 groups are guerrilla and paramilitary organizations that control much of Colombia’s cocaine production, and mafia organizations that control exports and money laundering.
All these groups have said that they would dismantle their organizations if they are granted judicial benefits.
The potential impact on the global drug trade
If Petro’s peace proposal is successful, this would severely disrupt the cocaine supplies of organized crime groups around the world.
Colombia currently produces more than 60% of the world’s cocaine, according to a rough estimate based on data provided by the United Nations’ Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Peruvian government.
According to the Office on National Drug Policy of the United States, the world’s main consumption market, almost 47% of the world’s cocaine is produced in Colombia.
Potential cocaine production
Possible impact on cocaine supplies
The possible demobilization of paramilitary organization AGC and the four guerrilla groups that want to negotiate peace with Petro would end their resistance against efforts to eradicate coca, the base ingredient for cocaine.
This would consequently affect the production of the illicit drug throughout the Andean region.
The governments of Peru and Bolivia are already having trouble containing the production of cocaine in their countries.
This could become more of a problem if Petro’s peace policy effectively allows his government to effectively combat coca cultivation in Colombia.
Whether this is even possible is anything but certain as illegal armed groups that control the drug trade in the southern Putumayo and Nariño provinces have shown no interest in “Total Peace.”
The growing influence of Venezuelan drug traffickers could ruin coca eradication in Colombia’s northeastern Norte de Santander province.
Coca cultivation in Colombia
Rerouting Colombian cocaine
The possible participation of Colombia’s coastal mafias could disrupt drug trafficking to North America and Europe.
According to think tank Indepaz, all the major drug trafficking organizations from Colombia’s port cities have expressed their interest in Petro’s peace proposal.
Their demobilization would affect cocaine exports via shipping containers, particularly to the United States and Europe.
This would affect the businesses of organized crime groups on the United States’ east coast and Mexica that use these naval trade routes to traffic drugs to the north.
The Western Balkan Mafia, the Italian Ndrangeheta mafia and the Mocro Mafia from the Netherlands would lose control over existing routes to Europe.
The possible demobilization of the coastal mafias could provide an opportunity for drug traffickers from Venezuela and the south of Colombia that have shown no interest in Petro’s peace plans.
The “Border Commandos,” for example, control coca cultivation in Putumayo and drug trafficking routes to Ecuador, Peru and Brazil.
The rise of the “Border Commandos” in southern Colombia
The “Tren del Augua” from Venezuela could step up efforts to reroute drug trafficking via their country’s seaports in the north and jungles in the south.
Brazilian drug trafficking organizations could also step up to promote the export of cocaine from the port of Manaus on the Amazon river and the port of Santos in the south.