Colombia’s election polls are more confusing than ever. While many indicate that former Vice-President German Vargas stands no chance, others predict he will make it to a second round.
All formally registered polls agree that the front-runner in the race is Ivan Duque, the protege of hard-right former President Alvaro Uribe.
The leftist candidate Gustavo Petro has drawn huge crowds, but two pollsters that published their predicted outcomes this week disagree on his performance.
Pollster CNC said that Petro is second and recovering from a minor retreat earlier in April.
CNC poll
Pollster Cifras & Conceptos, which said its prediction “is not a poll, but a prognosis,” surprisingly claimed that Vargas was not fourth in the race, but relatively certain of making it the second round.
The pollster changed its way of predicting the May 27 result between March and April, making it impossible to compare the most recent “prognoses” with previous poll results.
Colombia’s election polls are notoriously unreliable.