Partido de la U candidate Juan Manuel Santos would place first in the initial round of Colombia’s upcoming presidential elections, but the Green Party’s Antanas Mockus would win a second round runoff vote, the latest voter poll conducted by Gallup indicates.
In the Gallup poll, Santos receives 37.5% of voter support, while Mockus has 35.4%. But if the two were to face off in a potential second round vote, 48.4% of those surveyed would vote for Mockus and 43% would chose Santos.
Third in the poll was Conservative Party candidate Noemi Sanin with 8.8% of voter support, followed by Polo Democratico’s Gustavo Petro with 7.3%.
German Vargas Lleras of Cambio Radical and the Liberal Party’s Rafael Pardo both received 3.8% of voter support.
Demographically, the Gallup poll shows that Mockus has a voter stronghold in Bogota, where he was twice mayor. Santos has mass support on the Caribbean coast, the center-east, the Antioquia department and the coffee growing region.
In terms of population size, Mockus does well in big cities with more than 150,000 inhabitants, while Santos has more voter support in small regions, with popultions of less than 150,000.
As for age demographics, Mockus holds the 35 to 44 age bracket, while Santos leads among those younger than 34 and older than 44.
Santos holds the low-income 1 and 2 stratas of Colombian society, while Mockus has more support from the wealthier 3,4,5 and 6 stratas.
In general, women prefer Santos and more men prefer Mockus.
The Gallup poll surveyed 1,200 Colombians in their homes from May 15 to 17.
Colombia’s presidential elections will be held on May 30. If none of the candidates wins more than 50% of the vote, the two most popular candidates will compete in a second round runoff.