Colombia’s economy is seen growing at a scorching 5.21% year-on-year rate in the second quarter versus 5.1 in the first three months of 2011, according to the average of 34 analysts in a Reuters poll published on Monday.
Latin America’s No. 4 oil producer has made a strong recovery from the global economic crisis, garnered three investment-grade credit ratings so far this year, and continued to reap strong inflows in the mining and oil sectors.
Growth in April to June should be pushed up by strong domestic consumption — which makes up around two-thirds of economic activity — as well as dynamic growth in the oil sector, analysts said.
“Most leading indicators including retail sales without vehicles, energy demand, imports of capital goods, building permits, non-traditional exports and slaughter of livestock, show higher dynamics in the second quarter of the year,” said Daniel Velandia, head of economic research at Correval.
Growth estimates in the poll ranged from 4.6% to 6% for the second quarter with a median of 5.2%.
The Andean nation’s statistics agency is set to release official figures for second quarter growth on Thursday.
Analysts raised expectations for full-year 2011 growth to 5.26% versus 5.01% in the previous poll. Experts also increased estimates for 2012 expansion to 4.94% from 4.88% previously.
“In 2012, inflation shocks could be more important and we could feel aftershocks from the developed countries with whom we do business,” said Juan Camilo Santana, analyst with the brokerage Profesionales de Bolsa.
Once seen as a failing state mired in guerrilla war, Colombia is enjoying a surge in foreign investment, especially in the mining and energy sectors, as violence from its five-decade conflict eases.