Wrapping up Colombia’s election polls

Colombia’s pollsters are publishing their final predictions for the first round of presidential elections on May 27. The latest tendency appears to be a rebound of moderate candidates.

Colombia’s electoral law prohibits the publication of poll results in the last week before elections. This means that all pollsters that are registered with the National Electoral Council present their final poll results before Sunday.

With the exception of one, all registered pollsters indicate that the conservative Ivan Duque is leading the race to the 2018-2022 presidency followed by the progressive Gustavo Petro.

Polls released since last week

Reduced polarization?

The CNC and Yanhaas polls that were released on Thursday, and the Cifras & Conceptos poll that was released last week all show a decline in support of leading Duque and Petro.

For the first time in history, all candidates have taken part in televised debates relatively consistently. This has allowed candidates like Sergio Fajardo, German Vargas and Humberto de la Calle to expose their election proposals.

This may have led to a reduction in polarization that has come to dominate the election cycle and has led to several violent incidents.

After multiple warnings by electoral observers, all candidates agreed to limit personal attacks on rivals and focus on proposals.

Disinformation persists

While the candidates have been proposing moderation, many of their supporters have not. More than ever, disinformation and fear-mongering has complicated a public debate about the country’s significant challenges.

Far right supporters of Duque, in particular former President Alvaro Uribe, have continued to falsely accuse Petro of trying to promote class hatred and communism.

Supporters of Petro, many of whom are young voters, have fueled conspiracy theories about rigged polls and a pending election fraud.

Off to a second round

The May 27 election is not likely to be won by any of the candidates. Following the one-week suspension, campaigning and polling will resume ahead of the second round on June 17.

By then, the losing candidates will have decided whether to endorse one of the two remaining candidates to endorse.

Considering the significant electoral support of the moderates, their decisions could prove decisive in determining who will lead the country in the coming four years.

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