The latest poll, held by Invamer Gallup, places Santos in the lead with 34.2% of those surveyed indicating they would vote for the Partido de la U candidate. Mockus comes in second with 31.6%. Colombian media stress that the poll has an error margin of 3.3%, thus this poll results in a “technical tie” between the two leading candidates.
The latest Gallup poll differs to the previous poll released by Ipsos-Napoleon Franco on Monday, which placed Mockus in the lead with 38% of voter support. In the Ipsos-Napoleon Franco poll, support for Santos slipped to 29%.
The Gallup poll is more reflective of the Centro Nacional de Consultoria poll released last Thursday. That poll registered Mockus snapping at Santos’ heels with 34%, while the former defense minister hovered on 35%. Taking into account the error margin, this poll could also be called a “technical tie.”
In the case of a second round election between Mockus and Santos, Mockus would win with 47.9% of the vote, while Santos would come in second with 42.2%.
Conservative Party candidate Noemi Sanin remains in third place in the latest Gallup poll, with 16.2% of voters selecting her as the candidate they would vote for in the first round of the presidential elections. Sanin is followed by Liberal Party candidate Rafael Pardo with 5.7%, Polo Democratico candidate Gustavo Petro with 5% and Cambio Radical candidate German Vargas Lleras with 3.6%.
The Gallup poll was held in 59 cities around Colombia, with1,200 Colombian polled in person. Polls are usually conducted by telephone.
The first round of Colombia’s presidential elections will be held on May 30. If none of the candidates wins 50% plus one of the vote, the two most voted for candidates will face off in a second round election.