The recession in Colombia is a fact, analysts of the Institute of
International Finance (IFF), the global association of financial
The recession isn’t official, because the official
figures for the first quarter of 2009 are not yet known.
The IFF analysists drew this conclusion during their annual forum on Latin America, newspaper El Tiempo reported Monday.
Guillermo Mondino, head of research of Latin America of Barclays Capital says his bank expects the Colombian economy to contract 1.1 percent. The Colombian Government takes into account that the economy will grow between 0.5 and 1.5 percent this year.
“The external factors are hitting the export hard, which results in a reduction of domestic consumption. Countries like Chile, Colombia nd Peru, that have shown sustainable growth, will not be able to escape this. If all go down, Colombia can’t be the exception,” Mondino explained.
According to Joyce Chang, emerging markets investigation directors of JP Morgan, said Latin America already is in recession after the 8.6 percent drop of the GDP in the fouth quarter of 2008 and the expected 5.9 percent drop in GDP the first quarter of 2009.
Chang expects Colombia to do better than other Latin American countries, but not good enough to avoid recession. She expects the economy to contract 0.5 percent in the first three months of this year.