Antanas Mockus is leading the latest voter poll released Thursday on contenders in the Colombian presidential elections, with 39% of those surveyed saying that they would vote for the Green Party candidate, while Partido de la U’s Juan Manuel Santos came in second with 34%.
This latest poll, conducted by CM& and Colombia’s National Consultancy Center, shows a increase in support for Mockus, who won 31.6% of voter support in the previous poll.
The figures show that Santos’ support base remains steady. The Partido de la U candidate had 34.2% of voter support in the previous poll. This would suggest that Mockus is not winning over Uribistas – who would vote for Santos in the hope that he will continue with incumbent President Alvaro Uribe‘s policies – but another sector of voters.
The latest poll results would suggest that supporters of Conservative Party candidate Noemi Sanin may be switching to Mockus’ camp. Sanin’s support dropped to 11%, from 16.2% in the previous poll.
This thesis is supported by the fact that the remaining three candidates to register significant voting percentages, maintain more or less the same percentage of votes between them as in the previous poll.
Support for Polo Democratico’s Gustavo Petro remains steady at 5%, the same figure as in the last poll. Cambio Radical’s candidate German Vargas Lleras won 4% of voter support, compared to 3.6% in the previous poll. The Liberal’s Rafael Pardo‘s popularity dropped a few points from 5.7% in the previous poll to 3% in this poll.
Combined these three candidates hold 12% of the total vote, as opposed to 13.6% in the previous poll, thus supporting the thesis that the majority of the 8% increase in support for Mockus in this poll may come from Sanin voters switching camp.
Poll participants also indicated that if Mockus and Santos were to face off in a second round election, Mockus would win with 53%, while Santos would gain 42% of the vote.
The latest poll was conducted over 38 Colombian cities, and surveyed 1,000 Colombians over the age of 18.
Colombia’s presidential elections will be held on May 30. If none of the candidates wins over 50% of the vote, the two most popular candidates will compete in a second round election.
