Colombia will today release statistics on its gross domesic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2009, which are expected to show a return to growth.
Jose Dario Uribe, the head of the Central Bank, estimates that the fourth quarter GDP increased 1.5%, which would bring the total GDP change over the course of 2009 to around +0.1%.
Colombia’s GDP fell in the first three quarters of 2009, for which figures are already available. The rate of decline did however decrease each quarter, falling -0.5% in the first, -0.3% in the second and -0.2% in the third.
Uribe’s prediction is backed by the director of the Department of National Planning, Esteban Piedrahita, who says that everything suggests that the Colombian economy at the end of last quarter of 2009 recorded positive growth.
Analyst Juan Carlos Echeverri told El Nuevo Siglo that “while the industrial production growth remains negative, the decline has stopped. In addition, imports of capital goods showed a slight improvement. It can be expected that consumption will show an increasing trend in the coming months.”
Figures released by Colombia’s national business association (ANDI) earlier in March indicated that the country’s industrial recession was over. Industrial production suffered with the global economic downturn in 2009, falling 5.9% over the course of the year.