Last poll before elections: Santos wins first round, Mockus wins second

Candidate Antanas Mockus would win a runoff to his main opponent Juan Manuel Santos if elections were held in Colombia today, the latest poll before the May 30 elections show.

According to the poll by broadcaster RCN and weekly Semana, Santos received 34% of the intentional votes, while rival Mockus received 32%.

The electoral battle between the Partido de la U and the Green Party candidate has almost nullified the chances for other candidates to win. Socialist Gustavo Petro and Conservative Noemi Sanin received 6% of the intentional votes. German Vargas Lleras received 5% and Liberal Rafael Pardo 3%. The remaining candidates received less than one percent.

A final runoff between both candidates would result in a 45% to 40% victory for Mockus.

The two candidates are involved in a neck-and-neck race in the polls, of which some show Santos as winner and other Mockus.

Initially Santos, unofficially the political heir of Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, was by far the most favorite, but outsider Mockus, through intense campaigning and the involvement of thousands of volunteers, knew to overtake the former Defense Minister’s popularity.

Following this “green wave” Santos renewed his campaign team and hired controversial Venezuelan spin-doctor JJ Rendon. Following the change of his campaign team, Santos surged in the polls again.

In the last week before the elections, no polls are allowed to be published and the candidates are no longer allowed to organize rallies. The RCN / Semana poll is the last before the elections.

All four pollsters that are monitoring the elections say Santos receives most support in a virtual first round. Three of four pollsters say that Mockus has the best bids to win the second round and make it to the presidency.

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