The
runners are getting ready. Shoes are being tied, and muscles are being
stretched. With the resignation of Andrés Felipe Arias from
the Ministry of Agriculture, and his declaration to seek to
represent the second generation of Uribe’s democratic security
policy, the 2010 Presidential race has begun.
Arias,
jokingly nicknamed “Uribito” (little Uribe), has started
campaigning offering continuity with the President’s policies.
The fact that one of the most loyal members of the Uribe cabinet,
having discussed his decision with the President, has decided to
resign and campaign aligning himself entirely with the policies of
the current administration, indicates that even within Uribe’s
closest circles they are considering, or at the very least preparing
themselves, for the possibility that there will be no subsequent
reelection.
Arias’
announcement is destined to send the Presidential election into high
gear. Political parties now must scramble to prepare for a race in
which the rules, the competitors, and the possibilities still remain
uncertain. Yet, instead of going through democratic nomination
processes to determine the most feasible representatives, parties are
entangled in internal disputes.
Partido
de La U has not ceded the Uribe mantle to Arias, and there are
several personalities waiting for a chance to become the “continuity”
candidate, like former Defense Minister Martha Lucía Ramirez.
Similarly, Polo Democrático has a profound internal division
between those supporting the candidacy of current leader Carlos
Gaviria, and those seeking to open up the internal contest. The
Liberal party, hoping to reassure the image that it opposes Uribe,
has now reportedly marginalized prominent candidate Rodrigo Rivera,
until he presents a platform that is coherent with the image that the
party leadership wants to convey. The Conservative Party will have to
deal with the slippery slope of being part of Uribe’s
coalition, but at the same time preserving its own identity, in order
to compete with candidates from other parties that have supported the
current administration.
Probably
most concerning is the fact that decisions regarding how to select
candidates, and who those candidates will be, are occurring in
conversations between political personalities, rather than as a
result of discussion in the public arena. So, will Cambio Radical
make party leader Germán Vargas Lleras fight for public
approval of his nomination? Will Polo Democrático settle
internal differences by calling an election between all its aspiring
candidates? Will Arias have to be part of a public selection process
to officially campaign on the Uribe agenda?
As the
race is about to start, it seems there are more questions than
answers, and more uncertainty than clarity. That’s why, as
runners inhale one more time before getting ready to go, Colombians
can’t help but wonder who’ll end up running this unknown
obstacle course. As if there weren’t enough twists, those
running may blast off and run only to find that at the finish
line the current gold medalist is not ready to leave the podium just
quite yet.
Author Felipe Estefan is Colombian and studies media and international relations in New York