A couple of weeks ago, I was reading an article in a local newspaper in which the Colombian ambassador in the U.S., Carolina Barco, expressed herself to be very optimistic about getting Congress' approval for the free trade agreement. Likewise, President Uribe was so optimistic as to say Colombia would push again for the FTA in the U.S. Congress, after a meeting with some U.S. representatives in Cartagena. Even the minister of commerce was happily arguing Colombia would get the votes for the trade agreement.
Then a series of unexpected events began to unfold.
First, the US Ambassador to Colombia William Brownfield said: “If you offer me a bet on the likelihood the trade agreement will be approved by congress this year, I probably would not take the bet”.
Second, news articles began to circulate stating that U.S. trade deals would falter if introduced, as the Democratic Party would derail their approval because of the issue´s sensitivity among core Democrats, especially in an election year.
Third, some Democrat lawmakers, Patrick Leahy and co., addressed a letter to Hillary Clinton stating their “serious concerns” about the current “violations” of the human and workers' rights in Colombia.
At this point, I was basically ashamed at the pusillanimity of the Colombian government whose seemingly clueless approach to this issue has been not just laughable but shameful. I would not mind so much, if the government wouldn't made such a big fuss about the chances of the trade deal AGAIN.
Although the ignorance or good will of the Uribe administration has been responsible for one of the biggest fiascoes in Colombian foreign policy, the hopes for the FTA revived during the Obama´s Union Speech last Wednesday.
In order to reach out business groups and Republicans, President Barack Obama launched a drive to double U.S. exports over the next five years, saying "We need to export more of our goods. Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America."
Ms. Pelosi, one of the most trade-reticent Democrat lawmakers, was behind him as he favorably spoke out about trade
His change of discourse, as the natural leader of the Democratic Party, puts him at odds with both core Democratic constituencies, who erroneously blame international trade for current high levels of unemployment, and with Democratic lawmakers who will face a tough re-election bid and won´t be supporting any trade adventures in the current political environment.
So what are the odds the FTA gets approved this year?
None; as Obama clearly has a pragmatic approach to pushing his local agenda, which is focused on the health care bill and the reform of the financial system. If he could not get the health care reform approved with majorities in both chambers, how much less likely that he could get any FTA successfully approved with so many congressional seats at risk.
Thus, the domestic context and politics of the U.S. are going to play the leading role in framing the trade policy in the short term, and the Colombian government again is miscalculating its chances of getting anything done with the current U.S. administration. The government should understand that there is zero chance of getting the trade agreement approved this year, or while the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives.
All the fuss the Uribe administration has been making in recent years about his famous FTA with the U.S. has backfired. Uribe is just giving to the leftist pseudo-narcissist local NGOs and unions more ammunition to propel their own hidden communist agenda, which, by the way, will be in the best interest of the local terrorists organizations.
Author Luis J. Rodríguez is CEO of e-Bursatil.com.co, a website focused on Colombia's financial market
tomtom33
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... If Obama's State of the Union Address is any indication, he is going to be too busy trying to blame Bush and the Republicans for his train running off the tracks to get anything else done the entire rest of his term. And, if he doesn't change course, there will be no second term. The people spoke quite loudly in Massachusetts. I guess that Axelrod, et. al., are hard of hearing. But they may get it come November. By the way, Wisconsin Senator Feingold, one of the leading opponents of the Colombian FTA, would lose his seat to former Governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson if the election were held today. Of course Tommy has not announced for the seat yet. |
gringomedellim
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... @Tomtom you claim the end od Obama way to soon, you also misunderstand lik emany republicans what Sen. Browns victory was saying in one of the blues states of the USA. Obama has said he wants to see FTA apporved this year if you were listening to all he had to say , and not the short blip when he said when he stepped into office he has a ful plate already and he is not giving up hope to resolve that was left him and new challenges that might arise. Someone on another site called Bronw a Liberal which is also wrong, Brown is a true moderate. |
tomtom33
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... Obama has said many things to anyone and everyone who would listen. Then, of course, he claims that he has not said enough. Like every politician of every party, he speaks out of both sides of his mouth. I simply will not listen to him any more. I can't take any more of this partisan finger-pointing. As far as "the message" goes, only the future will tell. |
sethro
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... Obama is a Tard. I don't know much about the FTA agreement with Colombia but I agree that nothing will be passed anytime soon. I'm financially secure but I worry about the people around me, I worry and wonder when interest rates will go up. Interest rates have to go up and when that happens real estate here in the US will drop even more, the stock market will fall and jobs will be reduced again. Although I think Obama and Company are tards at least they aren't too tarded to understand a FTA with colombia isn't going to do much on our behalf. FTA with colombia means flower growers in colombia paying $2/hr for their labor competing against us labor at $9/hr minumum and with benefits if the company is large enough. |
tomtom33
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... US agricultural exports can compete in Colombia and so can a number of other categories. US farmers are foursquare behind the FTA. No, a Colombian FTA won't reduce US unemployment measurably. But a number of FTAs with a number of countries would at least show that the politicians are moving in a positive direction. Most electronics sold in Colombia are imported from the US. Currently we have to pay import duties here in Colombia on those electronics. Ever bought a car in Colombia? |
