Throughout the last decade it has become clear that Venezuela under Hugo Chávez is Colombia’s greatest national security threat. The FARC, the remaining paramilitary groups, and drug lords are all second on the list. And this past week, that threat became even more dangerous.
In a trip to Russia, President Chávez closed a deal with the government of that country for the purchase of weaponry and war material worth over US$2 billion. In that typical tone of his, full of ugly plebeianism, the Venezuelan president boasted that he had bought some “little rockets … that do not miss” their targets. Chavez’s new Russian rockets have a range of 300 kilometers, meaning that Colombian cities such as Valledupar, Bucaramanga, Barrancabermeja, Riohacha and Santa Marta could be prone to an attack with those rockets if they are fired from the Venezuelan border.
If that is not worrying enough, think that this is not the first time that Hugo Chavez has gone shopping in Moscow. Between 2005 and 2007, President Chavez spent about 4.4 billion dollars in Russian guns, making him Latin America’s largest weapons buyer. Venezuela today counts with 24 Sukhoi-30 fighter jets, which can be counted amongst the best military aircraft out there. If sent from their bases in Venezuela, those airplanes could be flying over Bogota or any other large Colombian city in about thirty minutes, as Mr. Chávez has reminded us a few times.
The autocrat from Caracas has also received from Russia 53 helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. This time, Mr. Chávez made sure to include over 90 war tanks in his purchase order. In 2006 alone, Venezuela’s defense spending increased 35 percent, and in 2007 Mr. Chávez’s government spent almost as much money buying new guns than the governments of Iran and Pakistan combined. In the meantime, President Chávez has been having fun by inviting Russian nuclear ships to joint military exercises in Venezuelan waters.
Of course, President Chávez maintains that all those weapons he is acquiring are for defense purposes only. Venezuela, he says, is improving its ability to react to an attack, presumably, from American troops based in Colombian territory. I seriously doubt that the United States wishes to invade Venezuela, let alone do so from the seven military bases it is leasing from Colombia. The Obama administration has not quite figured out how to solve the situation in Afghanistan and the country is tired of military adventures overseas. In the next, say, three to six years I think most people would agree that an attack on Venezuela is very unlikely to occur. The real problem, even if one wanted to believe in President Chávez’s good intentions, is that much of the weaponry Venezuela has bought can serve both defensive and offensive purposes in war. Furthermore, the precedent of the Venezuelan leader’s fiery rhetoric about a conflict with Colombia, and the fact that he has sent tanks to the border in the past, must make the Colombian government and its military very uncomfortable.
Yet, Colombia does not have the weaponry that can match the technology that Venezuela has acquired. The balance of power between the two states has been shifting in favor of the Venezuelans for a while now, and budget constraints prevent the Colombian government from doing much about it. Although the Colombian Armed Forces are considerably larger and better trained, our Air Force would be a weak opponent against the Venezuelan Sukhoi and F-16 jets –even if we use those Kafirs we bought from Israel. Also, it is no secret that Colombia’s military is much better equipped for fighting an internal war than an external one. And the crux of the issue is that even if the Colombian government slowly continues to weaken FARC, the possibility of a war with Venezuela cannot be ruled out. I do not want to sound unnecessarily alarmist or pessimistic, but I dare any sane person to trust Hugo Chavez with a bunch of guns and be fine with it.
Colombia must prepare for any eventuality. As Margaret Thatcher wrote once, we need to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. In an ideal world, the Colombian government should get from the United States a firm, clear compromise that it will come in Colombia’s defense in case of conflict with Venezuela, similarly to what happens with South Korea and Taiwan. But Colombia is neither South Korea, nor Taiwan.
In a hypothetical war against her bellicose, pseudo-communist neighbor, Colombia will have to stand her ground on her own. And that means that the Colombian government must continue upgrading the hardware of its military, and slowly start shifting the focus of its strategy from one of homeland security to one of national defense against other states. Accordingly, it would be appropriate to establish as a convention that annual defense spending never should be lower than 4% of GDP.
While this Cold War with Venezuela lasts, Colombia must remain alert. Remember that President Chávez will stay in office at least until 2013, and that now he has the possibility of endless consecutive reelections. There can be no attempts to appease a dictator in the making, or to give in to any of his bully tactics. Power must be checked with power. And the defense of the people, being, the most important duty of the Colombian state is something that must take priority over all other considerations.
President Uribe taught Colombians how important it is to defend the homeland from those who want to harm it from within. The time has come for Colombia to strengthen itself against those who wish to attack her from without.
Adriaan
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... Instead of getting into a arms race, which costs both the Colombian and the Venezuelan tax payer a lot of money, Colombia could also respond with a more diplomatic policy towards its neighbors, like it is doing with Ecuador now. It's hard to deny Chavez is behaving like a 12-year old bully, but Colombia would be wiser if it came up with a more intelligent answer than joining the regional pissing contest. So far, diplomacy has proven to be the most effective and cheapest solution to conflicts. Unfortunately, the current government is not exactly the most diplomatic of governments and lost a lot of regional support after the recent Unasur meeting. |
Joshua
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... I agree with Adriaan. We have to remember that war in that region is not as easy as it sounds. The mountain ranges and dense jungles do not allow for an easy attack. Colombia's greatest defense might be that it has three ranges and two massive jungles. I don't imagine any other country trying to take over the whole of Colombia. Boarder cities, maybe. If that happens Colombia will have to use diplomacy to resolve it. I don't like Chavez, or what he is doing, but in the end, a prosperous Colombia will only show the poverty ridden people in Venezuela how wrong their leader is. |
And.
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... Maybe I am crazy.....but I really don't see Chavez as that great of a military threat to Colombia. Venezuela would stand to gain nothing from entering into a conflict with Colombia. If anything Chavez is thumping his chest for two reasons which have little to do with Colombia in and of itself. He is attempting to drum up domestic support and deter the U.S. from attacking country. The effectiveness of his approach is definitely questionable. Sometimes you have to actually listen to what Chavez is saying and not just focus on the parts that seem relevant to Colombia. Right or wrong, he wants Latin American unity and attacking Colombia would not further this cause. This point, especially with regards to Colombia, is often lost upon his critics. Colombia, under Uribe or anyone else, is a much greater threat to the domestic security of its neighbors than vice versa. Time and again, Colombia's guerrillas, paras, narcos and government forces have demonstrated that they have little respect for international boundaries. Each of these players represent a serious threat to Colombia's neighbors. |
Bluebird
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... Adriaan..... Do you know who Neville Chamberlin was? He was the British Prime Minister who insisted on a policy of continuing diplomacy (appeasement) in dealing with Adolph Hitler even as Hitler was preparing to overrun all of Europe. Hitler laughed as he continued to accept all of the appeasments proffered by Chamberlin and all the while building his forces. Andrew..... when Chavez speaks of ""Latin American unity" the meaning is something far different than what you or I might think. Breaing News: It is being announced on the U.S. news netorks today that Chavez has announced a plan to acquire nuclear capabilities for Venezuela obstensibly for the purpose of producing nuclear power. In a statement to the press he said, and I quote " We have no intention of building an atomic bomb so do not bother us as you have bothered Iran". Russia will be providing assistance for this project. This is an extremely chilling development. Do any of you REALLY think appeasement is the answer???? The answer is that of course the ones of you that are secretly ( or openly) Chavez fans will think that appeasement is a wonderful idea. This is not to say that everyone in favor of appeasement is a Chavez fan.Others in favor of appeasement will include those who, like Chamberlan, lack the intestinal fortitude to say no to Chavez. The ones that know history will understand that the chances of a positive outcome by using appeasement is virtually zero. |
Adriaan
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... @ Bluebird, You just made me laugh. What do you suggest we do then? I personally am pretty bored of wars and find they have not really proven very effective the past 60 years of our common history. Also, living in Colombia, I think it would be a very nice break for the country if it can try to work towards peace. Whatever beef Chavez has with the US is none of our business. So, diplomacy, or working it out like educated adults, seems a good way for me. Diplomacy does not mean not doing anything, it means trying to avoid sending people's kids to war by using political, economic, whatever pressure that has nothing to do with putting a gun in someone's face. |
Bluebird
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... Adriaan....thaose are the same conclusions that Chamberlan came to! LOL How did things work out for him?????? |
Bluebird
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... And.... I didn't write this article.......just responding to it. Even I cannot believe that Chavez would be crazy enought to attack Colombia. I am simply saying that appeasement as a matter of policy will never be an effective way of dealing with him. |
Adriaan
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... @ Bluebird, So what will in your opinion? I'm not letting you get away with you just giving me the Chamberlain  |
Bluebird
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... Adriaan....there is only one way to deal with a bully...whether on the schoolground......on the job..... or the leader of a neighboring country. The dynamics of the relationship are the same. A bully will keep taking your peace offering and the price will keep going up. If you do not stand up to a bully he will eventually take everything you have. |
Bluebird
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... Well Adriaan.....I thought I just told you. By standing up to the bully, by refusing to let him intimidate you, by looking the bully straight in the eye and letting him know you are not afraid of him. What do you think Chavez is doing every time he sends tanks and troops to the border every few weeks? He is trying to intimidate. Fortunately, Mr. Uribe has not been intimidated and I applaud him for this. |
And.
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... @adriaan...the one way is to fight I guess. @bluebird....but Colombia has been anything but appeasing with Venezuela. They have been openly hostile. Uribe and his crew have taken every opportunity to bait Chavez and call him down in public. Chavez does the same of course, but it is a little ridiculous for you (and the author of this article) to pretend that Colombia is cowering beside Chavez's Venezuela. You would be hard pressed to argue that Colombia isn't on a military spending spree of its own with defense spending rising from 2.6 Billion in 2001 to 9.8 Billion in 2008. Furthermore, Colombia is at odds with nearly every country in Latin America....you can't really argue that Uribe has exhausted, let alone exercised, the diplomatic approach. |
Bluebird
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... And.........I didn't say that Colombia is cowering nor did I even infer it. To the contrary, I am very proud of the way Mr Uribe has stood up to the thugs that run the neighboring countries I said that appeasement will not work. Have you noticed that the countries that Colombia is most at odds with are the socialist bloc countries? |
gringo76
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... Hey Bluebird who buys oil from Venezuela? Who is the number one arms dealer in the world? Who is suppling arms and money to Colombia? You should know the name of this country by know, and comparing this situation to WW2? Why not join the military Blue bird if you think that war is the solution. What history book did you read? So does brazil want to do the same also? |
Spy
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... Another day and another wave of Mutually Assured Destruction which the Russians lost in many ways the last time they participated. The crazy lunatic Chavez seems more and more ‘la loca’ not El Loco. The blunderbuss of Venezuela knows how to get his pretty face in the news too. He knows how to spend the future of Venezuela on worthless worn out toys. What brought him to the stage will remove him. It is the nature of the program he is playing. I don’t believe Colombia has much to worry about. Any war with Venezuela would be over quickly and not in Chavez’s favor. Gustavo’s excitement about the weaponry is a bit over the top. Chavez followers only seem able at taking out innocent, unarmed civilians. Colombia practices on the real deal funded by the crazy guy who is in denial. |
Andrewmann552
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... It is pretty laughable to suggest Chavez plans to attack Colombia. Colombia has a larger military budget and is now a hotel for U.S. military advisors, trainers and weapons. This is similar to Israel's hysteria over Iran. They honestly want the world to believe Iran is a major threat to Israel when Israel has HUNDREDS of nukes and full backing by the United States. The Uribistas want to beat the war drums to keep their gangster president in office. |
MJ
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... Bluebird is right!! Chavez is a narcissistic fascist who would have all of Latin America under his rule if he could.... Peace talks between Colombia and Chavez would be futile, as long as Chavez holds on to his anti-American sentiment. Any business conducted between Colombia and the United States is seen as a threat to Chavez. Besides Chavez doesn't give a rat's ass about Colombia!! His and Ecuador's support of 'Armed Revolutionaries' which have rotted Colombia to the core is testament to that. Strengthening Colombia's military would give us the security to be able to defend ourself's if necessary, and delusional want-to-be dictators like Chavez would think twice about any kind of military threat toward Colombia. |
Adriaan
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... Hey, interesting stat for those who think Venezuela's buying an incredible amount of weapons. Figured it could add to an informed discussion  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8255930.stm |
Andrewmann552
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... MJ, pretty funny how you guys bash Chavez as some wannabe dictator when Uribe is actively trying to change the constitution to stay in power himself. Stop being hypocrites. |
Andrewmann552
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... Information from Adriaan's excellent link as reported by the BBC. The information comes from Jane's Defense Weekly, the world's best source on world military conditions. This is how weapons buying goes in South America: Brazil: $24.6 Billion. COLOMBIA: $12.3 Billion. Chile: $4.95 Billion. VENEZUELA: $3.17 Billion. Sorry Bluebird, you're living in fantasy land. |
Terrence Deagle
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... When I was down in Colombia in 1998, I talked with the Colombians in Medellin and Cali about this and they told me it's all about oil and most certainly not coffee. In addition, Chavez heps fund the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia otherwise known as the FARC and the Colombian government was furious about it. They mentioned that it was possible for Colombia to go to war against Venezuela with assistance from the United States. The idea was to cross into Venezuela and take the oil rich fields of Maracaibo. They figured why would Venezuela be any different from an oil rich Middle Eastern country? |
Kyle Johnson
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... There will not be a war between Venezuela and Colombia - or Venezuela and anyone for that matter. Let's not fall into the simple trap of the security dilemma when it's completely unnecessary. Military Venezuela is still much weaker than Colombia - technology can only go so far. Colombia's armed forces numbers are a little more than 3.5 times larger than those of Venezuela...and I'd be surprised if Venezuela's military even knew how to use half the technological weapons they just received. At the same time, too many legally binding agreements mean that if Venezuela were to invade, almost any country in the region (and even in the hemisphere) would come to Colombia's aid. Chavez, as crazy as he may seem, is not stupid - an arms build-up is probably defensive as going on the offensive is borderline suicide - and Chavez knows that. Let's, again, not fall into the trap of the security dilemma. |
Andrewmann552
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... Terrence Deagle, Chavez did not become President until 1999. How could he be funding FARC in 1998? |
Kevin Gallagher
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... Oh please, The US through its puppet state Columbia is just aching for an excuse to take out Chavez. Especially so since they were so embarrassed by there failed coup attempt on Chavez. Chavez is trying his best to stand up to the bully and so far he is succeeding. What little CIA hole did you crawl out of? This kind of crap might have worked 10 years ago but now anyone that pays the least little bit of attention sees right through it. Better go back to the drawing board and see what new rhetoric you can come up with. This one just does not fly. |
Bluebird
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... Andrew... you say above that "they" want you to believe that Iran is a threat to Isreal. Andrew...the president of Iran has stated publicly and often that Israel is a "stinking corpse" and should be wiped from the face of the earth. Do you honestly think this is non-threatning? |
Bluebird
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... Andrew...on second thought...please disregard my question...I really don't even care to hear you try to defend a man that makes public statements like that. |
marc in calgary
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... Bluebird, I think you get it regarding Iran's intentions, but the clowns that you debate here could perhaps do a little research regarding Iran... The maps of the middle east that Iran showed to the world at a UN conference, were especially helpful, nothing where Israel is now... just empty space. and that Hugo wants to climb into bed with the sand monkeys, is just insane. http://www.michaelfuchs.org/razorsedge/index.php?story=2008-02-22 http://www.unwatch.org/site/c.bdKKISNqEmG/b.1277549/k.BF70/Home.htm |
And.
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... "sand monkeys"......really? - well boys this little trip through the mental landscape of Uribismo has been very interesting, but I think it's time for me to move on. |
Andrewmann552
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... Nobody is defending Ahmadinejad, I don't condone his comments. But his comments or feelings towards Israel don't change the fact that Iran simply cannot pose a serious, military threat to Israel for pretty obvious reasons. Iran doesn't have a single nuke, Israel has enough to erase Iran! The same situation exists with Venezuela and Colombia in terms of military hardware and external support. These are just the facts, this is just REALITY. |
makopp5
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... Adriaan, this 12.3 billon is defence spending, what is not the same like weapons spending. Colombia is fighting, so they have to pay lots of military personal and infrastructure. |
Matthew Stiles
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... This article is laughable. Colombia's arms spending is 4-5 times bigger than Venezuela's yet Chavez is accused of fomenting the arms race. For another interesting link see http://oilwars.blogspot.com/20...sting.html Arms spending under Chavez has actually been lower compared to previous governments in Venezuela. |
Bluebird
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... Matthew...do you understand that Colombia has been prosecuting an internal war against standing armies within Colombia for many years now? Of course their spending is higher than if there were no FARC, ELN, AUC etc. etc. Andrew.... Never once has Israel told the world that Iran must be wiped from the face of the earth or even implied it. |
azunoman
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... US announced that they were pulling the missile defense system from Europe....The US must be getting a shopping list of things from Russia..that's how these things work yes?...I highly suspect Chavez going to be on that list...in some fashion or another....Chavez is no longer holding the keys to his destiny... |
cococo
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... Chavez will not go to war with Colombia, his generals would never go along with it and he knows there would be a military coup if he ever seriously tried to attack Colombia. There would also be no public support for such an attack, Venezuelens and Colombians are brothers and sisters, and Chavez knows this. He is full of hot air and empty rhetoric. One of Colombia's best defences against an attack from a foreign power is it's topography and any invader would spend years bogged down in the jungles, mountains, gorges and valleys fighting an army that is well practised to fighting the guerillas, and is still doing so, precisely because of the easy at which they can hide in this type of terrain. Stay cool Colombia and stand your ground. |
OLAFO
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... GET THIS;VENEZUELANS ARE THE MOST COWARD GUYS IN LATIN AMERICA,THE REASON THEY BUY SO MANY GUNS IS BECAUSE THEY FEAR THE COLOMBIAN COURAGE; THEY KNOW COLOMBIAN ARMY HAS NOT SOMANY PLANES AND SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS BUT THEIR ARMY IS THE BEST WELL TRAINED ARMY PROBABLY IN THE WORLD AFTER USA AND RUSSIA.YOU,,,DO NOT NEED PLENTY OF HIGH TECH PLAINS OR HELICOPOTERS TO DEFEAT A COUNTRY, IT'S JUST THE RIGHT TRAINING IN SOLDIERS (450000) vs (100000) VENEZUELAN CHICKENS THAT ARE USSUALLY FAGETS THAT FREACK OUT JUST SEEING A COLOMBIAN d**k.They Venecos think is a COLOMBIAN MISIL, poor a*****es thats the reason we call'em VENECOS DE LA MIERDA ,MARICONES COBARDES |
