Hugo Chavez’s thuggish attitude is not only a menace for Colombia and Colombians in general, but also for Colombia’s democracy. This menace is not direct, but is an indirect threat manifested in high popular support for Uribe. Colombian anti-Chavismo feeling is stronger than any opposition to the Colombian government.
Venezuela’s urban violence, rampant corruption, blackouts, unpaid civil servants, decline in public services, 26.7 percent inflation in October, and the GDP contraction of 4.5 percent, among other disastrous realities, are costing Chavez’s government dearly. His popularity is now below 50 percent. Chavez seems to think that the stronger his insults and war threats, the higher his popularity will be. This, of course, has not worked, and today 80 percent of Venezuelans disagree with Chavez's war rhetoric.
If war breaks out Chavez would have even less support in the international arena. Most, if not all, regional governments denounced the Colombia-US military agreement that effectively handed Colombian sovereignty over to the US. The region, however, may be more concerned with the intelligence-gathering nature of the bases, and related political destabilization, than with their potential use as a launching-pad to attack Venezuela. A war scenario would also be detrimental to the South American Union's fragile structure. The regional community's silence over the latest provocation by Venezuela may be a result of a Union still in its infancy, rather than being a deliberate act of support for Chavez. Unasur’s Defense Council's extraordinary meeting on Friday November 27 may help to clarify the region’s true stance.
A conventional war, however, is highly unlikely, due to the internal as well as the international consequences for Chavez. His war diatribes have started to make Chavez as a liability for progressive governments and leaders in the region, as Piedad Cordoba can attest. Chavez's latest comments, in which he called Robert Mugabe and Ahmadinejad his "brothers", as well as questioning Uganda’s former dictator Idi Amin's reputation as a human rights abuser, say it all. Even the Brazilian Congress has once again postponed the vote to allow Venezuela to join the Common Market of the South (Mercosur).
Regional sentiments towards Chavez have also been affected by Uribe's and the US's measured responses. Many commentators, like fellow Colombia Reports columnist Pablo Rojas Mejia, and El Tiempo editorials, have questioned Washington’s lack of assertive support for Uribe’s government. But responding to his provocations is what gives fuel to Chavez's incendiary comments and actions. Moreover, the current economic war, which is costing US$4 million in daily losses for Colombia, could be reversed if Chavez's national and international support dwindles as a result of his war rhetoric.
However, Chavez’s animosity towards Colombia has wider consequences, especially for Colombia’s democracy.
Even though Colombia’s constitution (once among the most progressive in the world) has been much disfigured by Uribe's government, Colombia still has a few independent institutions, such as the Supreme Court, which render the term democracy applicable to the country. But Chavez’s schizophrenic actions destroy the livelihoods of communities that depend on trade between the two countries. The resentment created by this threatens Colombia's democracy. Colombian anti-Chavismo feeling is stronger than any opposition to the Colombian government.
Uribe has repeatedly said that he would only consider running for re-election if there is a “hecatombe” or large-scale slaughter. Uribe’s delusion that he is an indispensable savior would be even more cemented in Colombians minds if Chavez’s thuggish attitude continues. The latest (misleading) poll showed that Uribe’s popularity reached 64 percent, its lowest level in seven years, after Colombians finally realized who Uribe is really governing for. However, the current stand-off with Venezuela will definitely help Uribe regain ground in the realm of public opinion.
Regardless of the innumerable scandals rocking Uribe’s government, a pre-war scenario would only strengthen a war-minded president like Uribe. Colombia’s collective memory is legendary for its shortcomings. Scandals such as Para-politics, Yidis-politics, extrajudicial killings, Carimagua, DAS illegal wiretapping, free trade zones given to Uribe’s sons, notaries scandal, humanitarian crisis and Agro Ingreso Seguro, among others, will not even be considered if the re-election of the president depends on a war scenario with Chavez.
Uribe’s popularity is expected to rebound sharply due to the failure of the censorship motion against the Minister of Agriculture and the latest delusional rants by the Venezuelan leader. This political oxygen only furthers Uribe's determination to remain in power if the Constitutional Court succumbs to his plans. Alternatively, former War Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos would be the most favored candidate to neutralize Chavez. In any case, Colombia’s institutions would lose out, and with them what little remains of Colombia’s democracy.
If the FARC deserves credit for the election of the Colombian president in 2002 and 2006, Chavez will do the same in 2010.
tomtom33
said:
 |
... "...the Colombia-US military agreement that effectively handed Colombian sovereignty over to the US." That is more than a little over-stated. I hadn't realized that the rate of deterioration in VZ had increased. Where is Andrew to cite old statistics to the contrary? A destabilized VZ is not in the best interests of anyone. However, this current situation may be a necessary precursor to needed change in VZ. I wish the VZ people well in their struggle. Thank you, Sebastian. |
Bluebird
said:
|
... Although some of your points regarding Uribe are based on your opinions , I still feel that this is as close as you can possibly come to admitting that Colombianos are (in general) better served by an Uribe type administration rather than a Chavez type administration. I know this is difficult for you so on behalf of freedom loving people everywhere..........thank you. |
Andrewmann552
said:
|
... What we have here is a classic clash between socialism and neofascism as happened in Europe soon after the Russian Revolution. Uribe is neofascism's attack dog and will terrify the population into following his policies. As for TomTom, I recommend you actually read the most up to date scholarship on Venezuela, not just Castaneda's liberal opinion which is one-sided and not complee. I would recommend some scholars, articles and recent studies, but it would probably to no use. Eventually Colombia's workers will overthrow the system Uribe is establishing, I'm not saying it will be socialism, but Uribe has turned his country into a colony and soon the peasants will rebel. Bluebird please don't even bother to respond, you don't even live in Colombia. |
Andrewmann552
said:
|
... From another article on this website: "Colombians are paying smugglers to help them cross the border illegally via horse trails into Venezuela. Merchandise is also being smuggled between the two countries via the same trails." Wow TomTom, things are so bad in Venezuela Colombians are PAYING to be smuggled into the country. That doesn't really make Uribe's policies look so healthy. |
Laureles191
said:
|
... Andrewmann552, what is wrong with you? Don't you realize that revolutions happen when the citizens of a nation are UNhappy? Uribe is the most popular Colombian President in modern history. I might not agree with all his policies, but if the working class didn't overthrow past presidents they disliked, why would they overthrow a president that they like? Think... |
Adriaan
said:
 |
... I don't know if you came across it, but Gallup published some interesting stats today, comparing Venezuelan and Colombian approval ratings. Their method can be questioned, but it makes nice discussion material. http://www.gallup.com/poll/124478/Colombians-Venezuelans-Odds-Leadership.aspx Mind you that the Colombians approval of their leadership (46%) can NOT be compared to the approval rating of the President. In the same poll his approval rating was 63% as published a few weeks ago. "leadership" as one of the Gallup guys explained to me is the government in general and on all levels. |
Sebastian
said:
|
... @Bluebird, Nowhere I come close to admitting that Uribe is a better leader for Colombia than Chavez, or the opposite for that matter. Nonetheless, I have written previously in CR who Colombia should elect as its next president: http://www.colombiareports.com...ident.html |
Bluebird
said:
|
... @andrewmann..........my aologies jackass......I guess I didn't see the sign saying " Residency required to participate in discussion". Adriaan....where the hell are you hiding that sign? |
Bluebird
said:
|
... Am I the only one who suspects andrew and andrewmann of being one and the same???LOL |
Bluebird
said:
|
... @Sebastian......yes I think we all know what kind of government you would inflict on Colombia if it were up to you......... |
gringomedeliin
said:
|
... Andrewmann I didn't know you were the new editor and own of Colombia Reports when did you buy it from Adriaan. Seb, I have to be honest I agree with 99.5% of what you have written, it shows some balance with out letting your personal views over take the article. I do agree with you that a thrid term for Uribe would not be good for Colombia, I dread Santos as President myself , rather see Petro elected but begining to think that will not happen |
gringomedeliin
said:
|
... Andrewmann, you seem to folow Venezuela close, but some how missed the fact that when Chavez tightens things at the border it is both sides smuggling things cross the border, Chavez was forced to sell oil cheap because of the blackmarket was selling it cheaper to Colombia, now that he has stopped selling cheap oil the blackmarket has kicked back into high gear once again selling oil and other products to Colombia, minus the taxes. Colombians will smuggle their products across thus avoiding taxes, in the end it is both Governments that lose in lose revenue, the two countries do just over 7 billion a year in legal trade, no one real knows how much trade was done illegally, but one can be sure it is now on the increase. |
Adriaan
said:
|
... &$%#*( I spend 7 hours sleeping and already they steal my website. You can't trust them gringos! P.S. Sebastian, the guy who wrote the column and is the blame for this whole discussion, also doesn't live in Colombia. |
Bluebird
said:
|
... @azunoman.......excuse me sir.....we will need to see some proof of residence before you can post that comment! LOL....just kidding @ adriaan....you know better than to turn your back (even for a minute) on us gringos! LOL....and try to hold your cussing to a minimum ....I have delicate sensibilities! LOL LOL Tomorrow ( Thursday) is a big holiday in E.E.U.U. We call it Thanksgiving. All of us have reasons to be thankful , for family, friends, or whatever it may be that we feel thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving to all readers who are celebrating the day and to those who are not as well. |
tomtom33
said:
|
... Some of us in Colombia will be celebrating Thanksgiving as well. We managed to find a huge turkey this year. And we found wild cranberries that we can harvest for free. Many Colombians think of them as basura. Their loss. At this price I may become the cranberry monster of Llanogrande. |
Bluebird
said:
|
... tomtom...... just keep spreading the idea that cranberries are basura......maybe even poisonous! LOL Enjoy your pavo and all the trimmings! . I am thankful for many things including my eyes so that I can read the sometimes heart warming and sometimes infuriating articles and comments here. Thankful for my hands so that I can respond to those articles. Happy Thanksgiving Adriaan....in the comments of the article on an afternoon in Paris (Medellin) you will find comments from both azunoman and myself. Let us readers know what you think of the idea please. |
Bluebird
said:
|
... @azunoman.........I think the barrio of Florida would be a good target to try to help a little if possible. Maybe Adriaan can put together some kind of fund that we readers could contribute to so that some much needed items could be purchased for children there. I know we may have diffence of opinion regarding politics but I think that we all agree that it woild be great if we could make some children smile during the coming holiday season. |
tomtom33
said:
|
... Florida Nueva is largely estrato 4 and 5. The need may be greater in estrato 1 and 2. |
Bluebird
said:
|
... @tomtom.... you are probably right......I am not familiar enough with the various barrios to know where the greater need ls. I am involved in something similar on a year round basis for a small town in northern Peru near Chimbote.......the need is great there also as it is in many places around the world. If we all help as much as we can maybe we, the readers of Colombia Reports, can help make some small difference in a few young lives. Who knows.?..........maybe if this gets off the ground maybe it could be expanded to a year round effort for the children of Medellin. |
gringomedeliin
said:
|
... Bluebird Happy thanksgiving to you also, reading your post here at work, Also Happy Thanksgiving to all here on Colombia Reports |
gringomedeliin
said:
|
... adriaan here is the link to Cblog it is about the project on Killa http://www.colombianblog.com/p...p?t=10345 Christmas Toys for Children in Barranquilla is the thread they have shipped I believe like 754 lbs of clothes and toys Christmas Toys for Children Colombia Presents “Putting a Smile on Another Child’s Face” Come join “Christmas Toys for Children Colombia” in cooperation with St. Marks Church (Las Moras-Soledad) Barranquilla, Colombia and the Nutrir Barranquilla Foundation in distributing Christmas toys to children in Barranquilla, Colombia. Where: Venezuela Park (located in the North of Barranquilla) When: December 15, 2009 at 9:00am |
koz
said:
|
... Oh for God's sake people, get over it ! The U.S. has no interest in launching anything resembling a war from any place in Colombia. In it's two hundred and some-odd history it has never attempted to colonize any country and has only tried to bring peace to a region. And for all you oil conspirators, the U.S. has always paid for oil from Iraq and Kuwait despite the billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars poured into both countries to bring stability. Last I checked the nine billion plus aid given to Colombia has not garner much for the U.S. other than friendship. Look at history and see what we shelled out to rebuild Japan after its reign of terror on the world. The whining little, pudgy, piss-ass moron they call president in the country next door is nothing more than a slight irritation only in that he continues to use anti U.S rhetoric to stir up instability among the Hispanic communities in SA to support his wanning popularity in Venezuela. Peace loving, free trade oriented people should simply ignore him. The more attention paid only aides in his goals which are to stay in power and rape the people of Venezuela. |
