Colombia Reports

Now, it is another story. Mr. Uribe showed how much influence he can have by bringing the referendum back to life. After a few meetings with members of his coalition in Congress, he was capable of having a majority of lawmakers stand behind the single, most controversial piece of legislation in four years. Of course, as I wrote last week, the referendum should be dead, but given that it still is alive and kicking, let us remember the few ways in which it could be returned to the grave.

First, there is the Constitutional Court. Semana’s Maria Jimena Duzán believes that only until February will the Court decide upon the constitutionality of the referendum. Although the Court is considered to sympathize with the President (unlike the Supreme Court, which has taken the principle of separation of powers to a whole new level), it is difficult to say whether the members of the Court will want to put at stake their credibility as an independent body by supporting the President’s ambition. Inversely, one could argue that the Court justices will not dare stand against the most powerful, popular politician in Colombia’s recent history. However, if the Court kills the referendum, that will be an act of political bravery (and juridical lucidity) that will show the strength of Colombia’s institutions. Let us hope the justices have some backbone.

Yet, should the justices fail to protect the Constitution, there are several more traps in the referendum’s path. Colombia’s National Electoral Council has sent several warnings that the funds used for the collection of signatures for the referendum did not comply with law. It has become clear that the organizers of the referendum did not respect the size limits regarding donations, and there is evidence that David Murcia Guzman, an infamous money launderer, helped with the transportation of the signatures after their collection. These possible violations to the law led the Supreme Court to open an investigation regarding 80-odd Congressmen, who voted for the referendum with the knowledge that the legality of the process of signature collection had not been established. Understandably, many of these Congressmen are scared of what the Supreme Court might do against them, which could make more than one hesitate about voting for the approval of the referendum. Moreover, if a competent authority demonstrates that there were violations to the law in the collection of signatures for the referendum, the Government would enter into a major legitimacy problem, while trying to gather enough votes for an initiative that was illegal.

But let us assume that the House of Representatives will pass the referendum, that the Constitutional Court will deem it in agreement with the Constitution, that the warnings of the National Electoral Council will fall on deaf ears, and that the threats of the Supreme Court will end up in nothing. Uribe’s possible third term in office would still have its most difficult test ahead. For the referendum to be valid, one quarter of the electoral census (7.1 million of around 28 million voters) would have to vote that day. Put differently, if fewer than 7.1 million Colombians go to the ballot box on the day of the referendum, the initiative will fail and the Constitution won’t be altered. The President would be limited to two terms in office.

Yes, Mr. Uribe received almost 7.4 million votes in 2006, when he last ran for the presidency, but this does not necessarily mean that he can handsomely reach the 7.1 million threshold for this referendum to pass. Colombia is a country characterized by voter abstentionism, and many of us who were in favor of Mr. Uribe’s first reelection are against a prospective second one. The battle for votes will be harsh, and the parties who oppose reelection will campaign intensely so that people do not vote on that day. The government will have to fight until the very last moment in order to have Mr. Uribe stay in power, and the battle is just starting.

Only time will tell whether this zombie is more alive that dead, or vice versa. What is certain is that both the government and those who oppose the initiative will use their dirtiest tactics in order to achieve their goal. It is a game of lies, strategy and raw power. The type of political bargaining that has already started to occur may well be one that Colombians are not ready to stomach. However, politicians should remember that the last word is in the hands of the voters, and that if they overreach themselves trying to obtain what they want at all cost, those same voters will make them pay in the future.